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Journal of Applied Ecology

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Journal of Applied Ecology's content profile, based on 35 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Assessing pollinator community recovery in restored agroecosystems using the recovery debt framework

Cano, D.; Perez, A. J.; Martinez-Nunez, C.; Tarifa, R.; Salido, T.; Ruiz, C.; Guitierrez, J. E.; Alcantara, J. M.; Rey, P. J.

2026-05-13 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.08.723832 medRxiv
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Recovery debt (RD) quantifies the interim deficit of biodiversity and function during the recovery process after disturbance. Unlike typical recovery indices derived from data on experimental-control comparisons, RD further considers the target (reference) biodiversity level, modelling the rate at which it is approached over time. However, the application of the RD approach to active restoration has not been explicitly implemented to date. Here, we extend the RD framework to evaluate active ecological restoration in agricultural systems, defining the onset of recovery as the shift from intensive to wildlife-friendly management. We applied this approach to assess short-term pollinator recovery in 14 olive groves across a gradient of farming intensification and landscape complexity in southern Spain. Restoration actions included adopting low-intensity ground cover management and actively restoring field margins. At one, three, and five years post-restoration, we assessed community responses by quantifying bee abundance, species richness, plant-bee network properties, and flower visitation rates. Reference systems were defined by olive groves in complex landscapes with low-intensity herb cover management and organic farming practices. Following restoration, the RD of bee abundance decreased from 71% to 55%. We found no significant effects of pre-intervention agricultural management on RD. Instead, across sites, the reduction of the RD (i.e., recovery) of bee abundance, richness, network connectance and flower visitation rate was strongly mediated by the availability of high-quality semi-natural areas in the surrounding landscape and by the ecological contrast created by restoration interventions at both the farm and floral patch levels. RD for other network metrics showed no significant pattern of variation. Our study demonstrates that wildlife-friendly management and targeted habitat restoration can rapidly reduce recovery debt for bee abundance and function in permanent agroecosystems. However, the recovery of more complex interaction-network properties likely requires longer timescales.

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Road proximity differentially shapes rodent-mediated seed dispersal frequency and distance

Craveiro, J.; Bugalho, M.; Vaz, P. G.

2026-03-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.24.713877 medRxiv
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By concentrating rodents along verges, roads can reshape rodent-mediated seed dispersal, yet empirical tests remain scarce. We conducted a two-year field experiment in Mediterranean oak woodlands in southern Portugal to test how seed dispersal varies with distance from roads across road type (paved vs. unpaved) and road-forest context (edge vs. non-edge). We tracked labeled holm oak acorns, recording dispersal distances and the number of dispersal events. The two metrics responded differently to road distance. Dispersal distances changed little with distance from roads in non-edge contexts but increased in edge road-forest contexts (2x longer at 400 m than at 10 m) and showed a year x distance-to-road interaction, with longer dispersal distances farther from roads in the second year (a poor mast year). Dispersal distances were also longer when acorns were deposited under shrubs and in areas of higher tree density, and decreased with greater natural acorn availability. In contrast, the number of dispersal events declined with distance from roads (30% more events at 10 m than at 400 m) and was higher along unpaved than paved roads (39% more events). Dispersal frequency also increased in the poor mast year and with shrub cover. No acorns crossed the road. Thus, road verges can concentrate rodent seed handling but do not increase dispersal distances near roads nor provide cross-road seed connectivity; instead, dispersal outcomes depend on edge context, road type, and microhabitat structure. Management that retains structural cover at verges and the adjacent forest edge (e.g., shrub patches and non-uniform clearing) can harness verge-associated activity to increase acorn deposition in sheltered microsites and promote regeneration farther into forest interiors in roaded landscapes.

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Recent and high grazing pressure limit cork oak seedling resprouting and survival

Wadud, A. I.; Craveiro, J.; Erroi, S.; Alcobia, S.; Branco, M.; Bugalho, M. N.; Vaz, P. G.

2026-05-06 ecology 10.1101/2025.11.20.689419 medRxiv
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Regeneration failure is a bottleneck in Mediterranean oak woodlands. Cattle can hinder or promote recruitment, depending on grazing location, timing and intensity. Herbivory theory predicts that repeated defoliation and trampling deplete seedling reserves, whereas resprouting can extend survival; yet field studies rarely separate intensity from recency or combine long-run grazing records with individual fates and microhabitat/climate context. We test how management-driven heterogeneity shapes cork oak seedling survival and resprouting by combining 12 years of paddock-level grazing records with individual tracking of 8431 seedlings across 24 paddocks. Bayesian mixed-effects survival models related seedling lifespan to grazing history x pressure (moderate [≤]150; high >150 LSU ha-1 days yr-1) and to key covariates, including seedling height, resprouting status, shrub distance, cattle dung counts (as a proxy of very recent grazing), and 1-month SPEI (as recent water balance). Bayesianlogistic mixed models were then used to relate resprouting probability to grazing treatments. Survival was lower in grazed than ungrazed paddocks and declined along management gradients: median lifespan fell from 460 (moderate grazing) to 256 days (high), and from 460 (old grazing; two-year absence) to 199 days (recent). A two-year cattle absence increased survival under moderate pressure but was insufficient where pressure was high, indicating legacy effects and that recovery windows must scale with pressure. Resprouting dominated persistence: resprouters lived >5x longer than non-resprouters (2351 vs 460 days). Taller seedlings lived longer, and shrub proximity conferred a modest benefit. Climate modulated outcomes: wetter recent periods (higher SPEI) markedly boosted survival. Cattle reduced the odds of resprouting, with the strongest penalty under recent use. By disentangling grazing intensity from recency and linking both to seedling survival and resprouting, we show why recruitment falters under continuous, heavy grazing and when it can recover. Because drought intensifies cattle impacts, managers should combine moderate stocking rates with multi-year rest periods to rebuild oak bud banks and below-ground reserves; a two-year hiatus can help under moderate pressure but appears insufficient where pressure is high. Aligning rotational plans with drought outlooks and tracking simple field cues (seedling height, recent resprouting) offers a practical path to reconcile production with regeneration in Mediterranean wood-pastures. HighlightsO_LITwelve years of grazing records linked to 8431 cork oak seedling fates C_LIO_LIRecent grazing reduced survival and resprouting versus a two-year cattle absence C_LIO_LIHigh grazing shortened lifespan; two-year rest helped only under moderate pressure C_LIO_LIResprouting was the strongest survival correlate; resprouters lived over 5x longer C_LIO_LIWetter short-term water balance increased cork oak seedling longevity C_LI

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Bumble Bee Abundance and Diversity Increase with Intensity of Tallgrass Prairie Restoration Intervention

Kochanski, J. M.; McFarlane, S. L.; Damschen, E. I.; Gratton, C.

2026-03-26 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.24.713996 medRxiv
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IntroductionHuman land-use intensification and the resulting habitat loss are primary drivers of insect pollinator declines. Habitat restoration offers a promising approach to counteract these declines, yet landscape-level evaluations of bee responses to restoration and management remain limited. We conducted a two-year, landscape-scale study in Wisconsin, USA, to assess how different intensities of tallgrass prairie restoration and management affect bumble bees (Bombus spp.). ObjectivesThis study aimed to determine whether (1) bumble bee abundance and diversity increase with assisted restoration, and (2) outcomes differ between low-(seeded only) and moderate-intensity (seeded and managed with prescribed fire) interventions. MethodsUsing catch-and-release surveys, we measured bumble bee abundance and diversity at 32 sites representing a gradient in restoration intervention: no intervention (unassisted recovery), low intervention, and moderate intervention. ResultsBumble bee abundance and diversity were higher at assisted restoration sites (low and moderate intervention) than at unassisted sites. Although both tended to be greater at moderate than low intervention intensities, these differences were not statistically significant. Bumble bee community composition also differed across intervention intensity, driven by shifts in dominant species (e.g., B. impatiens and B. griseocollis). Rarer taxa, including endangered and vulnerable species, occurred only at assisted restoration sites, with the largest populations at moderate intervention sites. Across all sites, bumble bee responses were strongly and positively associated with floral abundance, but not with semi-natural habitat in the surrounding landscape. ConclusionOur findings demonstrate that assisted grassland restoration can effectively increase bumble bee abundance and diversity, supporting its value as a conservation practice for pollinators. Implications for Practice: (1) Grassland restorations targeting plant communities can successfully support nontarget pollinators across a range of management intensities and landscape contexts. Adding seeds of pollinator-preferred plants could improve restorations with low floral abundance and diversity. (2) Management of existing restorations is important to maintain abundant floral resources and diverse pollinator communities. Because sites varied widely in prescribed fire use, our findings likely represent a conservative estimate of its benefits, and higher intervention intensity (e.g., repeated seeding, regular fire, mechanical or chemical shrub and invasive plants control) may further enhance outcomes for bumble bees.

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Ungulate conservation: Lessons from experimental white-lipped peccary management in agricultural-natural landscape mosaics of the Brazilian Cerrado

Painkow Neto, E.; Silvius, K. M.; Barquero, G.; Neves, D. C.; Fragoso, J. M. V.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.03.716323 medRxiv
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Animal population control is widely used to mitigate conflicts between wildlife and agriculture worldwide. Structured, monitored removals are rare in South America, however, and their consequences for wildlife populations as well as their effectiveness in reducing crop damage are little understood. Using eight years of data from an experimental white-lipped peccary management program in an agricultural mosaic in the Brazilian Cerrado biome, we assess how structured, non-lethal removals affect both peccary demography and second-crop corn damage. Leslie removal models based on 6,619 captured individuals indicated that cumulative removals to approximately 85% of the initial population strongly reduced peccary abundance, with limited demographic compensation despite fluctuations in reproductive output. Corn crop damage, quantified with satellite imagery, declined over time and was correlated with peccary population size. Interannual variation in population growth and juvenile recruitment was poorly explained by climate, fire, or landscape composition. Source-sink dynamics likely play a role in maintaining healthy populations at the regional scale. Together, these results demonstrate that sustained and monitored ungulate removals can reliably reduce population size and agricultural damage, supporting coexistence between wildlife and food crop production in human-dominated tropical landscapes.

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Beyond connectivity: dispersal mortality and Allee effects prevent bobcat recolonisation despite habitat availability

Glover-Kapfer, P.; Fowles, G.; Dougan, G.; McCarthy, K.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.724937 medRxiv
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Wildlife crossing infrastructure is promoted to restore connectivity for fragmented populations, but its effectiveness at enabling natural recolonisation remains untested. We tested this using a spatially explicit agent-based model parameterised with GPS telemetry data from bobcats (Lynx rufus) in New Jersey, USA. By integrating movement behaviour, stochastic demography, habitat suitability, and traffic-dependent mortality risk, we simulated 50-year recolonisation dynamics across a highly urbanised landscape. Despite extensive unoccupied suitable habitat, natural recolonisation completely failed across all scenarios, with vehicle-induced mortality during dispersal acting as the primary limiting factor and turning the matrix into a demographic sink. Even an idealised mitigation scenario in which mortality at high-mortality crossings was reduced to zero failed to produce a self-sustaining population. Although dispersal increased, individuals at the recolonisation front remained too sparse to overcome the mate-finding Allee effect. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that the recolonisation-failure result is robust to {+/-}50% variation in per-crossing mortality and {+/-}25% variation in disperser survival. Restoring structural connectivity is not, in itself, a sufficient intervention for recovering low-density carnivore populations facing a high-mortality matrix. Instead disperser survival and local density at the recolonisation front are the rate-limiting determinants. In such systems translocation rather than crossing-structure investment is more likely to result in recolonisation success.

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From protection to amplification: Imperfect chytridiomycosis prophylaxis increases infections in wild amphibians

Barnett, K. M.; McMahon, T. A.; Shepack, A. D.; Buelow, H. N.; Barkley, Z.; Belsare, A. V.; Risin, M.; Milloway, O.; Carozza, J.; Beasley, J.; Hobart, B.; Moss, W. E.; McDevitt-Galles, T.; Detmering, S.; Hilgendorff, B. A.; Nordheim, C. L.; Calhoun, D. M.; Rohr, J. R.; Johnson, P. T. J.; Civitello, D. J.

2026-05-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.15.725113 medRxiv
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Wildlife vaccination could become a powerful strategy to mitigate disease-induced biodiversity losses, yet many vaccines for wildlife diseases provide only limited protection. Notably, tools to control the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) are urgently needed for amphibian conservation. Laboratory experiments have demonstrated that prophylactic exposure to Bd metabolites increases host resistance, significantly reducing infection intensity in amphibians subsequently challenged with live Bd. Because Bd metabolites are non-infectious and applied topically, this treatment has potential to be administered to waterbodies to vaccinate and protect amphibians. We developed an agent-based model that indicated imperfect vaccination could reduce or amplify Bd infections at the population level, depending on degree of enhanced resistance or tolerance. Utilizing a Before-After-Control-Impact design with ten years of data, we conducted an ecosystem-level trial where we applied low levels of Bd metabolites or a sham control treatment to ponds in California and subsequently quantified Bd prevalence and infection intensity in metamorphosing Pacific chorus frogs (Pseudacris regilla). Unexpectedly, infection intensity was significantly greater in treated ponds relative to control ponds following metabolite addition. Additional model simulations indicated that this could occur via two mechanisms: (1) if treatment greatly increased tolerance alone or in combination with smaller increases in resistance, or (2) if a deleterious environmental interaction caused the treatment to increase susceptibility, rather than promote resistance. Future research is needed to determine whether tolerance or environmental factors drove heightened Bd infection intensities in this field trial to identify contexts in which this treatment can be used as a conservation tool. Significance statementAlthough wildlife vaccination is increasingly explored as a strategy to mitigate disease-induced population declines, many available vaccines provide limited protection, requiring careful consideration to design successful conservation campaigns. Here, we use both an eco-epidemiological model and field manipulation experiment to assess the effectiveness of an imperfect prophylactic treatment (akin to a prototype vaccine) for chytridiomycosis, a disease implicated in the massive decline of amphibian biodiversity worldwide. We unexpectedly found that prophylaxis-treated ponds had higher pathogen loads relative to control populations and models suggest this could result from enhanced tolerance or an adverse environmental interaction.

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Overgrazing drives ant diversity loss and community homogenization in the Tumbesian dry forest in Ecuador

Gusman Montalvan, P.; Velez-Mora, D. P.; Ramon, P.; Gusman Montalvan, E.; Dominguez, D.; Donoso, D. A.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.18.712513 medRxiv
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O_LITropical dry forests are among the most threatened ecosystems globally, yet the consequences of livestock overgrazing for ant communities remain poorly documented, particularly in the Tumbesian biodiversity hotspot of southwestern Ecuador, where uncontrolled goat grazing constitutes the dominant disturbance agent. C_LIO_LIWe sampled ant communities (Formicidae) across a goat-grazing disturbance gradient in Zapotillo (Loja Province, Ecuador), establishing three disturbance levels (Dense, Semi-dense, and Open Forest) with nine 60 x 60 m plots per level (n = 27) and 486 pitfall traps. Community responses were assessed using abundance-based and presence-absence analyses of morphospecies richness, Hill-number diversity, community composition, beta diversity decomposition, and functional guild structure; vegetation structure was characterized using satellite-derived NDVI. C_LIO_LIWe recorded 47,459 individuals belonging to 22 morphospecies in six subfamilies. Morphospecies richness declined with disturbance (Dense: 19, Semi-dense: 15, Open: 12), with four specialist genera exclusive to Dense Forest. Beta diversity decomposition revealed a shift from turnover-dominated dissimilarity at moderate disturbance to nestedness-dominated dissimilarity at high disturbance, indicating progressive habitat filtering as the dominant community-restructuring process. C_LIO_LICommunity composition differed among disturbance levels (PERMANOVA: F = 4.49, R{superscript 2} = 0.272, p = 0.001) and was correlated with NDVI (r{superscript 2} = 0.341, p = 0.013). Cryptic/soil and Leaf-cutter guilds were nearly eliminated from Open forest while the Opportunist guild expanded markedly, indicating that functional homogenization precedes detectable taxonomic impoverishment. C_LIO_LIOvergrazing drives directional ant diversity loss and biotic homogenization at both taxonomic and functional levels in the Tumbesian dry forest, underscoring the conservation value of intact Dense forest. C_LI

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Broadleaved hedgerows as complementary habitats for small mammals in pine plantation landscapes

Berard, A.; Plat, N.; Pradel, J.; Galan, M.; Loiseau, A.; Piry, S.; Blanchet, J.; Cesari, L.; Berthier, K.; Rivoal, J.-B.; Pellett, C.; Valbuena, R.; Jactel, H.; Charbonnel, N.

2026-03-19 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.17.712293 medRxiv
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O_LIThe global decline of natural forests is accompanied by a rapid expansion of commercial tree plantations, which are expected to further increase to meet growing demand for wood products. However, planted forests generally support lower biodiversity than natural forests, particularly when monospecific and intensively managed. In this context, broadleaved hedgerows have been proposed as a nature-based solution to enhance biodiversity within conifer-dominated plantation landscapes. Such features may be especially beneficial for small mammals, including rodents and shrews, which are key contributors to forest ecosystem functioning. However, their effects on small mammal communities remain largely unquantified. C_LIO_LIHere, we assessed variation in small mammal communities among habitat types within a native pine plantation-dominated landscape in southwestern France. Using a multi-year, multi-season survey, we compared species richness and abundance among plantation edges, broadleaved hedgerows embedded within plantations and natural broadleaved forests. We further tested whether environmental descriptors of hedgerow sites influenced dominant species and whether seasonal and interannual demographic dynamics modified habitat-related patterns. C_LIO_LIPine plantation edges and broadleaved hedgerows supported lower small mammal species richness than natural broadleaved forests and were dominated by two habitat generalists, Apodemus sylvaticus and Crocidura russula. This pattern was driven by the near absence of the forest specialist Clethrionomys glareolus. Hedgerows did not increase species richness relative to plantations, but provided favourable habitat for A. sylvaticus, which was scarce in pine plantation, while supporting fewer C. russula. Variation in hedgerow structure and composition further influenced A. sylvaticus abundance, while seasonal and interannual rodent population dynamics modulated habitat-related differences. C_LIO_LIOur results indicate that intensively managed pine plantations act as environmental filters, excluding forest-associated small mammals. While broadleaved hedgerows benefited one species, their capacity to restore forest-specialist communities was limited without broader landscape-scale interventions. These findings highlight both the ecological benefits and constraints of edge-based habitat interventions and provide guidance for designing and evaluating biodiversity-oriented management in plantation landscapes. C_LI

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Sharing the trail: recreation effects on bear behaviour in a Canadian Rocky Mountain Park

Dimitriou, A.; Gaynor, K. M.; Benson-Amram, S.; Percy, M.; Burton, C.

2026-04-04 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.02.714576 medRxiv
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Humans are profoundly reshaping the natural world. These changes are giving rise to complex and mutually risky dynamics between people and large carnivores. In protected areas across North America, bears (Ursus sp.) face rapidly rising recreation pressures that can alter their use of the landscape, either displacing them from high-quality habitats or drawing them into human-wildlife conflicts through habituation or attraction to anthropogenic resources. However, disentangling responses to recreation from other drivers can be difficult because human activity covaries with environmental and seasonal processes that also shape bear activity. We leveraged the partial closure of the popular Berg Lake Trail in Mount Robson Park, British Columbia, Canada, to investigate whether black (Ursus americanus) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) showed fear, attraction or neutral behavioural responses to varying recreation levels across multiple spatiotemporal scales. To understand both anticipatory responses to predictable patterns of human activity, and reactive responses to hiker events, we used detections from 43 camera traps over two years (July 2023-June 2025). We compared weekly habitat use, daily activity patterns, and direct responses to hikers (using Avoidance-Attraction Ratios; AARs) among camera sites and between open and closed sections of the trail. Our results revealed that both bear species exhibited patterns consistent with fear responses, while some black bear behaviours were also consistent with attraction responses. Both kinds of responses reflect anticipatory strategies rather than reactionary behaviours (i.e., no AAR effect). Neither species avoided recreation spatially at the weekly scale: black bears were detected more at site-weeks with greater recreation intensity, while grizzly bears were consistently detected more at sites closer to hiking trails. However, both species used daily temporal partitioning to avoid direct encounters with humans. These findings demonstrate scope for human-bear coexistence when recreation levels are managed to be moderate and predictable, and bears have sufficient space to segregate from humans during peak times. Thus, successful coexistence will hinge on co-adaptation by both bears and people. Understanding how recreation influences bear behaviour, and the spatiotemporal scale at which that occurs, is critical for guiding effective adaptive management aimed at fostering human-bear coexistence in high-traffic protected areas.

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The dispersal of released pheasants and the risk of their intrusion into English protected areas

Madden, J. R.; Sage, R. B.; Wilde, J. A.

2026-05-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.04.722670 medRxiv
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Large-scale annual releases of pheasants Phasianus colchicus and their subsequent management for recreational shooting create various ecological impacts in the UK. While effects at release sites are fairly well understood, dispersing birds may influence areas farther away. If they enter ecologically important but sensitive protected areas (PAs), any negative impacts could be especially harmful. Using tracking data, from 766 birds across 10 sites, we estimated survival and dispersal of released pheasants and applied these patterns to gamebird release records near English PAs to gauge intrusion risk. Of 2,885 registered release sites, just over half lay within 2 km of a PA. A large number of shoots release relatively few birds while a small number release many birds. Thus, numbers expected to enter a particular PA likely depend both on the size of releases and proximity to the PA. We estimate that, at a national level, a maximum of between 525,000 and 784,000 pheasants might be found within PAs very soon after release, representing around 1.7% of all the pheasants released annually. This number declines over the months after release until in February, we estimate that there are between 131,000 and 196,000 pheasants (0.4% of the total release) might be found within PAs. The critical metric by which ecological damage might occur is their density within PAs. Mean densities soon after release averaged 12.0 birds/ha in PAs within 250 m of release sites. This density declined markedly both in time (as birds died) and space (as they moved further from the pen as potential areas increased). By November, densities in PAs 500-1000m from release sites peaked at 0.5 birds/ha, falling to 0.16 birds/ha in February. These estimated densities are around two orders of magnitude lower than those known to cause strong, lasting impacts within release pens. The results are subject to assumptions about movement behaviour, game management and bias in registration. Despite these constraints, considerable local variation exists, with a minority of high-volume release sites very near PAs posing the greatest potential ecological risk.

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A spatial analysis of Common Pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) abundance with reference to Protected Area coverage in England

Wilde, J. A.; Ozsanlav-Harris, L.; Madden, J.

2026-05-08 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.06.722883 medRxiv
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The release of tens of millions of common pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) across the UK for shooting may pose an ecological risk to native species and sensitive habitats, particularly if the birds move into protected areas (PAs) such as Special Areas of Conservation (SAC), Special Protection Areas (SPA), and Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). The extent of this ecological risk depends on the abundance of pheasants in these sensitive sites, especially if they are attracted there after the shooting season when game management efforts to retain the birds cease. We used relative pheasant abundance measures derived from British Trust for Ornithology bird atlas data from 3793 2km tetrads across four English counties (Berkshire, Cornwall, Devon, and Hertfordshire) to determine if pheasants preferentially disperse into or reside in areas with greater PA coverage. We analysed relative abundance in both the winter shooting season and the breeding season using a Bayesian occupancy-abundance model, controlling for habitat type and diversity. Our results showed a strong influence of habitat on pheasant abundance, consistent with known habitat preferences. However, we found no evidence of a relationship between relative pheasant abundance and the proportion of ecologically relevant PA coverage in a tetrad. This lack of a relationship was consistent across all four counties and across both the winter and breeding seasons. Our finding suggests that common pheasants do not preferentially disperse into or reside in protected areas compared to surrounding, unprotected land, suggesting that the ecological impacts caused by released pheasants are no more likely to occur in protected areas than in non-protected areas.

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The effect of long-term management on wild pig (Sus scrofa x domesticus) populations across the southeastern United States

Foster, J. R.; Pepin, K.; Miller, R.

2026-04-21 ecology 10.64898/2026.04.16.719012 medRxiv
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O_LIThe management of invasive species often emphasizes removals to manage populations. However, evaluating the success of this management technique remains challenging, especially at large scales. Understanding the relationship between removal intensity and population growth is essential for determining when management achieves desired outcomes. C_LIO_LIWe used management removal data (removal resources [e.g. trapping] and relative effort [trap nights]) to estimate population density, demographic structure, and growth rates of invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofax domesticus) across a large landscape. From the management data and population estimates, we inferred population trajectories in the absence of removals and quantified the proportion of the population removed by the most widely used methods to control wild pigs. We then compared observed removal intensities and population growth rates to predict expected population trajectories immediately after management occurs. C_LIO_LIResults suggest substantial spatial and temporal variation in wild pig growth rates and variation in the effectiveness of removal efforts. Additionally, removing wild pigs at higher densities had a greater effect on limiting population growth than removals conducted at lower densities, though both are important. However, on large properties, removal intensity was often insufficient to offset population growth, indicating that management effort does not scale to large areas. C_LIO_LIThese results demonstrate how removal data and population modeling can provide robust inference on population dynamics and management effectiveness, offering a scalable framework for evaluating and improving invasive species control programs. We also discuss the current limitation of how effort is defined for different large-mammal removal techniques, and offer potential solutions for a more complete definition, such as going beyond trap nights and including constraints on personnel, equipment, and logistics. C_LI

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Modelling the persistence of post-management disturbance in Calluna vulgaris communities

Ritson, J. P.; Bell, B.; Worrall, F.; Evans, M.; Lindsay, R.; Evans, C.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.12.724511 medRxiv
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O_LICalluna vulgaris is often managed in the UK by rotational burning, but this practice has recently been banned on peat with depth greater than 30-40 cm. It is unclear how then to manage the large areas of Calluna on blanket bogs used for sport shooting because without managed burning, fuel loads and wildfire risk will increase as the Calluna ages within the artificially narrow age distributions created by burn management. C_LIO_LIWe developed a model of Calluna mortality and management to understand duration and persistence of post-management effects. This allows us to assess how long it will take to reach a more natural age structure which would allow increased diversity if management ceases. C_LIO_LIOur results show that management effects persist for around 50 years depending on site-specific mortality rates. Active management may therefore be needed either to mitigate the elevated risk of severe wildfire or to speed up this transition. C_LIO_LISome studies have employed, as unmanaged analogues, Calluna stands that were last managed <50 years ago, but such studies may have unintentionally biased their results by observing Calluna still in post-management recovery leading to an over-estimation of wildfire risk associated with more natural blanket bogs. C_LIO_LISynthesis and applications: with the banning of burning as a management tool for Calluna on deep peat, alternative management is now likely needed as our model shows it could take around 50 years for the Calluna to reach a more natural age distribution. Mowing can replicate some of the effects of managed burning but requires repeated intervention and may compress the peat surface from repeated machine tracking. Rewetting and Sphagnum reintroduction may offer a more sustainable management approach to lowering Calluna fuel loads and reducing severe wildfire risk by creating wetter sub-optimal conditions for Calluna growth and thereby altering the competitive balance between Sphagnum and Calluna. Further work is needed to assess the efficacy of rewetting in controlling fuel loads and how this varies with climate and local pressures. More broadly, this work highlights the need to quantify the persistence of past management regimes to understand ecological trajectories. C_LI

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Exploring sources of uncertainty in the estimate of waterfowl harvest in the United Kingdom

Ellis, M. B.; Lewis, H. M.; Cameron, T. C.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.724812 medRxiv
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There is an urgent need to gather data on harvest rates of waterbirds in Europe to assess the sustainability of hunting. Estimates of total waterbird harvest in the United Kingdom (UK) and the relative harvest of different huntable species come from two separate surveys, the Value of Shooting (PACEC 2014) and National Gamebag Census (NGC, Aebischer 2019), and these have been recently used to explore the likelihood of unsustainable harvests of wild waterbirds by UK hunters (Ellis and Cameron 2022; Madden et al., 2025). The reliability of these sustainability estimates depends on how representative the original surveys are of hunter behaviour and success. There are also 1-3 million released game-farm mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) that takes up considerable and unquantified proportions of the UK waterbird harvest. Here we explore uncertainties in the UK winter harvest of wild waterfowl by comparing estimates from the NGC dataset with those from the Crown Estate coastal hunting clubs, and a novel approach using analysis of social-media images (2019/20 to 2023/24). We explore the difference in species-specific harvest with and without the uncertainties in the number of released mallard and the total number of duck harvested in the UK. Waterbird harvest estimates differ markedly depending on the input dataset and whether released mallard are included in the analysis. Confidence intervals of each estimate are inflated by uncertainties in the number of released game-farm mallard contributing to, and the size of that national bag. Estimates extrapolated from social media suggest the national harvest of several species may be considerably larger than the corresponding NGC estimates (e.g. Teal *2.07 and gadwall *11.2), while mallard harvests away from formal shoots represented by NGC are significantly lower (*0.71). Excluding released mallard reduces the statistical estimate of total wild duck harvest by 56-63%, which would have biologically significant effects if realised.

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Future-proofing agrobiodiversity: climate and niche-aware conservation planning using reinforcement learning.

Butikofer, L.; Silvestro, D.; Rubio Teso, L.; Molina, A.; Lara Romero, C.; Garcia Valdes, R.; Broenniman, O.; Iriondo, J. M.; Guisan, A.; Petitpierre, B.; Aubry, S.

2026-05-07 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.04.722509 medRxiv
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Despite substantial global commitments to expand protected-area networks, the strategic allocation of limited resources remains challenging. Spatial conservation planning helps identify priority regions that maximise conservation benefits per unit area. Yet, they also tend to neglect two fundamental aspects of conservation: climate-driven range shifts and the representation of environmentally distinct populations within species. Here, we propose a continental-scale conservation planning framework that explicitly accounts for both processes through novel routines implemented in the conservation planning software CAPTAIN. We apply this framework to European crop wild relatives (CWR), for which niche coverage is a focal priority, as it underpins their potential to support agricultural adaptation to future environmental stressors through breeding programs. Comparative analyses on a subset of 186 CWR associated with five focal crops show that accounting for range shifts and niche coverage leads to substantially different conservation priorities from those obtained with a baseline model based on current distributions only. These additions reduced the number of non-protected species by 64%, increased the average protected distribution range by 43%, increased mean niche coverage from 75.8% to 84.5% and reduced the number of species with less than half of their niche protected from 35 to 10. Applied to a more comprehensive checklist of 1,140 European CWRs, the final framework identifies continental-scale priority areas representing 93.5% of these taxa and includes 94.4% of its critically endangered species. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating both temporal dynamics and within-species environmental representation when designing conservation strategies under climate change. RepositoryThe repository will be made publicly accessible after publication at doi: https://10.5281/zenodo.19855597

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Fungal-beetle networks in deadwood are modular and shaped by tree species and deadwood type

Faticov, M.; Dahlberg, A.; Hjalten, J.; Lofroth, T.; Hekkala, A.-M.

2026-03-25 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.23.713619 medRxiv
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Deadwood is a key habitat for forest biodiversity, yet how tree species and deadwood type shape linked fungal-beetle communities remain poorly understood. We explored saproxylic fungi and beetles in a large-scale restoration experiment on birch, pine, and spruce deadwood created as burned standing trees, felled logs, girdled trees, high stumps, and uprooted trees. As expected, we found that tree species was the main driver of both fungal and beetle community composition, while deadwood type was the second most important driver. Fungal-beetle community correlations were context dependent: significant multivariate correlations were detected for pine and spruce, but not birch, and were strongest in burned standing pine, burned standing spruce, and girdled spruce. Across all tree species and deadwood types, fungal-beetle co-occurrence networks were consistently less nested and more modular than expected by chance, indicating structured, compartmentalized associations of fungi and beetles even within single deadwood units. SynthesisThese results show that maintaining diverse tree species and deadwood types is essential to retain specialized multitrophic communities and the ecological processes they support.

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Pollinator Plant Network Interactions of Bees (Hymenoptera: Anthophila) in an Urban Garden

Sokolov, N. A.; Navarro, I.

2026-05-14 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.13.724999 medRxiv
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6.8%
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Urban pollinator gardens can provide refugia and support diverse populations of native bees amid threats from habitat destruction, pesticides, and potential ecological pressures from the introduced honey bee (Apis mellifera (Linnaeus, 1748)). The University of California, Berkeley, maintained a native bee garden at the Oxford Tract research facility to study the biodiversity, phenology, and foraging habits of urban bees from 2003 to 2009. That garden was decommissioned, and a new garden was re-established in 2019. Using diversity observations from the early 2000s garden and non-lethal sampling techniques, we characterized plant-pollinator interactions between flowers and urban bees in the newer bee garden with a bipartite interaction network. Across 12 flower species, we observed two non-native pollinators, the honey bee (A. mellifera) and the alfalfa leafcutter (Megachile rotundata (Fabricius, 1793)), along with at least ten native bee species across three families (Apidae, Halictidae, Megachilidae). We found that, despite the garden being created for native bees, honey bees accounted for 84% of all pollination interactions. The most abundant native bees were sweat bees (Family: Halictidae). Generalist interactions dominated the network, as both honey and sweat bees foraged on most available flowers. Honey bees showed a significant positive correlation with floral abundance, visiting flowers with the highest number of inflorescences, whereas native bees did not show this preference. These results indicate that native bee garden stewardship could benefit from greater floral diversity, while avoiding the dominance of any single species with high floral abundance, thereby reducing the likelihood of direct competition with honey bees.

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How comparable across management goals are grassland monitoring methods?

Messick, H.; Lichtenberg, E. M.

2026-05-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.05.18.726054 medRxiv
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QuestionsEcological monitoring, repeated collection of ecological data, is essential to document how ecosystems respond to change. In grasslands, different vegetation monitoring protocols are used across disciplines, making it difficult to address multiple management objectives or research questions. We asked four questions about how three common vegetation monitoring protocols compare. (1) How do the protocols differ in how they collect data? (2) How do the protocols differ in their utility? (3) In what ways do vegetation measurements quantitatively differ across protocols? (4) What are each protocols strengths? LocationThis study was conducted on working ranches in the Southern Great Plains with vegetation consisting mainly of native forbs and grasses. MethodsWe implemented three protocols at each site: (1) the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP), (2) the Grassland Effectiveness Monitoring (GEM) protocol, and (3) a typical pollinator ecology survey protocol. We qualitatively compared each protocols utility and quantitatively compared cover measurements that each produced. ResultsAll three protocols displayed positive associations within cover categories, but differed in actual cover measurements. The RAP protocol, which uses remote sensing, measured the highest total vegetation cover. The GEM protocol, a line-point intercept method, had more capability to capture fine-scale cover patterns. The GEM protocol measured the most bare ground while the Pollinator protocol measured more forb coverage. ConclusionFine-scale methods like the GEM protocol are most appropriate to address objectives that require capturing small patterns that would otherwise be overlooked with methods like quadrats or remote sensing. Remote sensing is advantageous when monitoring large areas or inaccessible land, but may over-estimate cover. The Pollinator protocol is best equipped to address questions regarding flower abundance and richness. Similarities among protocols can facilitate synergy across disciplines for more effective monitoring. We emphasize the importance of denoting a clear scale and scope of monitoring objectives before selecting methods.

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The City Nature Challenge increases urban biodiversity knowledge and public engagement with blue spaces

Morgan, M. C.; Hopkins, C. R.; Forster, R.; Gomez, A.

2026-03-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.03.19.712856 medRxiv
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Global biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate due to rapid environmental change and increasing human pressures. Ongoing urban expansion fragments natural systems, while urban design increasingly seeks to mitigate these impacts through the integration of blue-green infrastructure. Effective biodiversity monitoring is therefore essential to evaluate ecological conditions within these novel socio-ecological systems. Although urban biodiversity monitoring is challenged by its high landscape heterogeneity, dense human populations provide opportunities for large-scale data collection through public participation in citizen science. Using data from 25 City Nature Challenge (CNC) projects across the United Kingdom (2020-2025), we assessed the effects of the four-day bioblitz on species inventories, participation in biological recording, and spatial patterns of recording effort. CNC events doubled public participation in iNaturalist recording relative to baseline activity, leading to the documentation of numerous previously unrecorded species through increased observer effort and broader use of urban blue-green spaces. These results show that CNC events enhance urban biodiversity datasets by increasing the number of observers and reducing spatial and observer biases, providing a cost-effective tool for enriching urban biodiversity data. In addition to generating ecological data, CNC events could have public health benefits through increased exposure to urban blue-green spaces.