Journal of Applied Ecology

Freshwater ecosystems in Scotland are increasingly threatened by multiple interacting stressors, including pollution, hydrological alteration, land use change, and climate-driven pressures. Scotland's rivers are amongst the most physically diverse and dynamic in the UK, contributing significantly to the country-s economy and natural heritage. Monitoring 125,000 km of waterways presents an issue, with limited funding and capacity of environmental agencies creating an environmental monitoring deficit at a time when robust data are essential for delivering national and global biodiversity targets. Citizen science offers a scalable, community driven approach to strengthening environmental evidence. This study evaluates the development, implementation, and outcomes of Guardians of our Rivers (GooR), a nationwide citizen science programme using macroinvertebrate-based river health assessments based on the Anglers' Riverfly Monitoring Initiative (RMI) established by the Riverfly Partnership. Between 2022 and 2025, GooR trained more than 850 volunteers, established 123 monitoring sites across Scotland, and generated over 860 surveys-surpassing the previous 16 years of aquatic invertebrate monitoring efforts. Standardised field training, full equipment provision, and structured support enabled high-quality data collection across diverse catchments. The establishment of nationally applied trigger and target thresholds created a consistent mechanism for detecting ecological deterioration and ensured that verified trigger breaches (n = 39 in 2025) resulted in formal investigation or follow-up. Analysis of national abundance patterns revealed ecological and biogeographic trends across the eight RMI taxa, confirming data sensitivity to habitat differences, water quality, and regional pressures. A detailed case study of the Lothian Esk catchment demonstrated the programme's capacity to detect seasonal macroinvertebrate dynamics and site level ecological trajectories over time. Overall, GooR illustrates how well-designed and well-supported citizen science can deliver high resolution spatiotemporal datasets, enhance early warning systems, empower communities, and make a meaningful contribution to promoting river health. Importantly, GooR forged a working partnership with Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) that allowed communities to not only gather data but also transformed the way citizen science is recognized as contributing to freshwater conservation. Continued investment and long-term support will be essential to sustain these gains and realise the full potential of citizen-driven freshwater stewardship.

Maximising ecosystem service (ES) benefits while minimising ecosystem disservices (EDS) is essential for ecological intensification in annual crop systems. Yet ecosystem disservices are often underreported in the scientific literature, potentially biasing how agroecosystem functioning is understood. To test this, we built a predicted network of plausible links between ecosystem service providers (taxa or functional groups that can deliver ecosystem services or disservices), and the ES or EDS they may provide. We then compared this with a realised network based on systematic Scopus searches of annual crop literature. The predicted network contained 47 nodes and 103 links, whereas the realised network contained 33 nodes and 58 links, representing declines of 29.8% in nodes and 43.7% in links. Overall connectivity declined, especially for highly connected nodes, and four of the nine predicted disservice nodes were absent from the literature. ES links were more likely to be documented than EDS links, and EDS links were three times more likely to be absent. Across all links, ES were reported in 6.6 times more papers than EDS. Projected networks, which map indirect connections by linking ES directly to EDS if they share common providers, showed that these bundled interactions were strongly reduced, obscuring multifunctionality and trade-offs. This systematic underrepresentation of EDS, reflecting a cognitive bias, can inflate perceived benefits, distort the evaluation of key taxa and interactions, and create unrealistic expectations about intervention outcomes in biological crop protection. Addressing EDS alongside ES is therefore essential for more balanced assessments of crop-system management and better-informed decisions.

A majority of stream restoration efforts in central Europe focus on streams that are less than five meters wide. Restoration aims to increase structural complexity, thereby enhancing habitat heterogeneity, promoting biodiversity, and reestablishing aquatic-terrestrial linkages that can drive responses in adjacent terrestrial communities. However, the effects of small stream restoration on terrestrial biodiversity remain poorly understood because research focuses mainly on large rivers. Here, we investigated the effects of restoration on the structural complexity of the stream channel as well as the terrestrial habitat and plant diversity on a local and landscape scale across 55 small streams in an agricultural landscape. We compared restored stream sections with non-restored ones that were similar to the conditions before restoration. We also assessed how restored sections changed over time since restoration. Restored stream sections showed a higher stream structural complexity and habitat diversity, both of which are targets of active restoration measures. Restoration also increased riparian plant diversity, both directly and indirectly through structural complexity and habitat diversity. Although time since restoration did not influence structural complexity, it drove successional changes in plant communities that became increasingly associated with wetland habitat conditions. Our results demonstrate that small stream restoration effectively increases floodplain habitat and plant diversity in agricultural landscapes, primarily by enhancing water availability in the floodplain. Restoration actions on small streams support biodiversity if they improve stream channel complexity, connect the stream with its floodplain, and create floodplain habitats.

Protected areas cannot halt biodiversity loss in isolation; integrating them with surrounding human-dominated landscapes is critical. However, this integration is challenged by substantial landscape heterogeneity at their borders, hindering our understanding of cross-border changes in ecosystem service provision. We introduce a novel framework for characterizing these dynamics by analyzing ecosystem service gradients along protected area borders. For 16 protected areas in the French Alps, we assessed 12 ecosystem services using a mix of established biophysical models and novel connectivity-based models for mobile species. These were aggregated into three stakeholder-driven domains reflecting respectively rural, cultural, and urban management priorities. Automated polynomial regression analysis classified borders into five gradient types. The most common were 'Decreasing Gradients', representing a decline in ecosystem services outside the protected area, and 'Increasing Gradients', with the opposite pattern. Our analysis reveals these patterns are driven by specific landscape configurations, uncovering frequent trade-offs between the three management priorities, where, for instance, landscapes supporting rural priorities often degrade cultural and urban ones. We also identify key opportunities for synergies, by identifying areas where ecosystem services for all three priority domains increase simultaneously outside the protected area. This spatially explicit typology provides a powerful diagnostic tool for designing targeted interventions, such as prioritizing habitat restoration where ecosystem services decline or managing agricultural landscapes to mitigate conflicts across management priorities, supporting a more effective integration of protected areas into the wider landscape.

Context. The relationship between biodiversity and zoonotic disease risk is a central topic in community ecology, yet empirical evidence in Europe remains scarce and often contradictory compared to North American studies. Addressing this gap is fundamental to better anticipate zoonotic disease dynamics. Objectives. We investigated the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV) in Veneto (Italy), a major European hotspot. Because this vector-borne pathogen is primarily transmitted by Culex mosquitoes and maintained by several avian hosts, we analysed how multiple facets of both avian and mosquito biodiversity influence its transmission. Methods. Using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) trained on longitudinal entomological and ornithological surveillance data, we modelled the probability of WNV presence in mosquito pools as a function of host and vector community structure. To isolate the effects of biodiversity, we explicitly controlled for climatic and landscape covariates. Results. In agricultural landscapes, we found that higher avian diversity leads to higher viral presence, driven by the dominance of highly competent synanthropic hosts. Conversely, a dilution effect emerges across the broader regional landscape where areas of higher ecological integrity allow for more complex and functionally diverse avian communities. Furthermore, we identified significant vector-mediated regulation, where high abundances of mammophilic vectors effectively suppress viral prevalence through larval competition. Conclusions. Our findings suggest that the dilution effect is a property of intact ecosystems which can be lost, or even locally reversed, in anthropogenically altered environments. Because such habitat degradation fundamentally alters zoonotic transmission dynamics, landscape planning must prioritize ecological restoration. Ultimately, embedding these practices into One Health strategies represents a proactive approach to mitigating disease emergence.

Field ecologists often rely on observational data to understand the impact of environmental stressors and management interventions on natural systems. Natural and anthropogenic events (e.g. wildfires, protected areas, nutrient deposition) do not occur randomly in space, however, which can introduce bias into observational studies--which we refer to as causal selection bias. Field study designs that ignore the non-random occurrence of stressors may yield biased estimates of stressor effects on ecosystems. Matching methods commonly used in economics, political science and epidemiology offer a powerful framework for controlling for causal selection bias by identifying more comparable treatment and control sites. Although these methods are increasingly used in conservation, they are rarely used in ecological field-based studies. Here we review how Propensity Score Matching (PSM) can improve field sampling designs in ecology and strengthen causal identification of stressor effects. Then we apply this approach to a case study examining wildfire effects on forest recovery in California. We conclude with practical recommendations for implementing PSM to improve causal identification of ecological change, which is particularly important for developing effective management interventions.

Garden ponds are important elements of urban landscapes and provide numerous ecosystem services, but they may also support mosquito populations that can act as vectors of pathogens. However, mosquito occurrence in garden ponds has so far received limited attention. We engaged citizen scientists to provide data on their garden ponds and collect water samples for eDNA analysis to assess mosquito occurrence in 319 garden ponds across Hungary, with special focus on Anopheles maculipennis, a potential malaria-vector species. We tested the effects of land cover, local pond management activities and environmental factors on the probability of An. maculipennis occurrence in garden ponds. Overall mosquito occurrence was relatively low, with mosquitoes detected in 59 ponds (18%) and An. maculipennis detected in 46 ponds (14%). Agricultural land cover and pond age were associated with the occurrence of An. maculipennis in garden ponds. A higher percentage of agricultural land cover within 1000 m of garden ponds increased the probability of An. maculipennis occurrence, while occurrence was higher in newly created ponds ([≤] 2 years). Our results suggest that landscape context is more important than local pond characteristics in determining the occurrence of An. maculipennis in garden ponds. This study contributes to a better understanding of the landscape context in which a potential malaria-vector species occurs in urban and peri-urban environments and highlights the value of citizen science for large-scale data collection from privately owned ponds that are otherwise inaccessible to researchers.

Species distribution models (SDMs) increasingly inform conservation and biosecurity decisions in freshwater systems, where the reliability of its uncertainty estimates matters as much as its point predictions. Ensemble SDMs derive prediction intervals from across-replicate variance, but this variance captures systematic error only when replicates disagree about it, an assumption that fails when training data are contaminated with low-accuracy records, the norm in citizen-science datasets. Whether this failure is spatially uniform or concentrates in identifiable parts of a range is unknown. Using a panel of European freshwater crayfish spanning native headwater-associated species and invasive lowland colonizers, we show that contamination-induced calibration failure is strongly spatially structured: it concentrates at stream-network headwaters, the topological tops of the network, where upstream-aggregated predictors are structurally undefined, and scales with contamination severity, replicated across four species and both dominant ensemble protocols (replicate and consensus). The failure is driven by upward prediction bias, not by intervals failing to widen: contaminated ensembles overpredict suitability in headwaters, and because the bias is shared across ensemble members, the intervals do not flag it. This is a conservation-relevant blind spot, because headwaters are both refugia for threatened native crayfish and front lines for invasion; an SDM that silently overpredicts suitability there misdirects survey and management effort toward the segments where its predictions are least trustworthy. Standard leave-one-basin-out conformal calibration, the recommended panel-wide remedy, repairs marginal coverage but leaves headwaters undercovered, because a single calibration threshold is dominated by the abundant non-headwater segments. A group-conditional (Mondrian) variant, calibrating the two populations separately, restores reliable coverage in both at no extra cost and reallocates width where it is needed. We recommend network-position-stratified calibration as a default for ensemble SDMs in dendritic freshwater systems.

Soil microbial diversity is shaped by the spatial scale at which communities are sampled, yet standard sampling practices often homogenize samples, obscuring fine-scale spatial structure and diversity patterns. To better understand how sampling effort, spatial extent, and physical homogenization influence plot-level microbial richness estimates, we sampled 57 forest and grassland sites across three regions in Germany using a 14-core cross-transect design and performed 16S rRNA gene metabarcoding. We simulated sampling efforts and a range of spatial extents and compared diversity estimates to those from physically homogenized composite samples. Plot-level richness increased continuously with sampling effort and spatial extent, with no evidence of saturation. However, when sequencing depth was held constant, sampling completeness declined with increasing sampling effort, meaning that more diversity is not captured. Composite samples substantially underestimated plot-level richness and altered apparent diversity relationships between ecosystems; individual cores identified forests as richer than grasslands, whereas homogenized samples suggested the opposite relationship. These results demonstrate that sampling effort, spatial extent, and homogenization fundamentally shape soil microbial diversity estimates. Homogenized composite samples cannot substitute for individual cores when the goal is to reliably quantify plot-level richness or compare diversity across ecosystems.

1- Biological control of mosquitoes using aquatic predators offers a sustainable alternative to chemical insecticides, yet the specific predator and prey functional traits that govern consumption efficacy remain poorly quantified at a global scale. 2- We conducted a global meta-analysis of 755 effect sizes across 59 studies to evaluate how predator identity (fish vs. odonate naiads), body size, dietary guilds, and prey characteristics influence consumption rates. Using multilevel models and robust publication-bias corrections, we quantified predation efficiency, expressed throughout as the consumption rate (CR, larvae predator -1 h -1 ), while accounting for methodological variations across experimental designs. The primary literature itself proved geographically skewed towards Asia (chiefly India), with Africa, the Americas, and Europe markedly under-represented. 3- Grouping predators solely by broad taxonomic identity concealed the central pattern in our data. Although naiads outperformed fish when compared directly within the same studies, this taxon-level difference was driven almost entirely by non-mosquitofish species, the least efficient predator group overall. Mosquitofish (\textit{Gambusia} spp.) and dragonfly naiads were statistically indistinguishable from one another, indicating that dietary specialisation, not taxonomic identity, is the stronger predictor of predation efficacy. Predator body size strongly and positively predicted consumption rates in naiads---driven primarily by dragonflies---but showed no significant or negative relationship in fish. 4- Methodological traits heavily structured the extreme heterogeneity observed across studies; notably, exposure time acted as a severe rate-suppressor, where prolonged assays drastically underestimated per-hour consumption rates due to satiety or handling constraints. Nevertheless, a combined model incorporating all significant ecological moderators simultaneously explained a substantial share of the between-study variance, confirming that predator-prey dynamics in these systems are highly predictable from functional traits. 5- Effective biological control cannot rely on broad taxonomic assumptions but requires evidence-based trait-matching. Management programs should prioritise body size when deploying insect predators, selecting the largest individuals within species known to consume mosquito larvae and favour insectivorous fish species over generalists. Crucially, because short-term laboratory assays artificially inflate efficacy, multi-duration assessments are essential to accurately scale up biocontrol predictions from experimental arenas to complex, real-world ecosystems.

1. Sandy beaches along urbanized coasts are increasingly managed through beach nourishment and hard infrastructure, yet these interventions often constrain natural dune-building processes. Along the Belgian coast, where much of the beach-dune interface is bordered by dikes, promenades and intensive recreation, strandline vegetation may provide an overlooked mechanism for retaining sand and initiating embryo dune development. 2. We assessed the potential for four pioneer dune plant species (Cakile maritima, Calamagrostis arenaria, Elymus farctus and Salsola kali) to establish, develop vegetation cover and contribute to sand accumulation along the Belgian coast. Using field surveys from 2017-2023, LiDAR-derived beach elevation and annual sediment dynamics, we modelled species occurrence and abundance/cover in low-disturbance reference zones and projected these relationships across the wider coastline. 3. Occurrence models identified where abiotic conditions allow plants to establish and persist until the late growing season, whereas zero-inflated abundance/cover models estimated expected vegetation development across environmental gradients. Predicted occurrence was widespread for several species, suggesting that the abiotic gradients modelled here are not the primary constraints on potential establishment across large parts of the coast. In contrast, expected abundance/cover showed stronger species-specific responses, particularly to sand accretion, indicating that sediment dynamics mainly affect post-establishment vegetation development rather than occurrence alone. 4. Independent field measurements of embryo dunes showed positive relationships between vegetation cover and local sand accumulation for all four species. When scaled using spatial predictions of potential abundance/cover, pioneer vegetation could retain substantial volumes of sand, with Cakile maritima contributing the largest share, followed by Salsola kali, Elymus farctus and Calamagrostis arenaria. Estimated volumes depended on assumptions about whether vegetation occurs as dispersed units or aggregated patches. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our results show that, even along a heavily urbanized and nourished coastline, abiotic conditions can support strandline vegetation and embryo dune initiation where disturbance is reduced. Management actions such as limiting trampling, adapting beach cleaning and protecting strandline vegetation could enhance the retention of nourished sand and support nature-based coastal defense. Rather than replacing engineered interventions, strandline vegetation may increase the efficiency with which available sediment is retained within the beach-dune system.

Understanding the relationships between soil macrofauna and decomposition is crucial for predicting how land-use change impacts ecosystem function in fragmented systems. This is because soil macrofauna affect decomposition and also respond to the changes in abiotic conditions across habitat gradients. This study investigates edge effects on the macrofauna contributions to decomposition across forest-field ecotones. We used bait lamina assay to quantify aboveground and belowground feeding activity of soil macrofauna in Autumn 2025 in three deciduous forest-old field ecotones and one coniferous forest-old field ecotone, in Southwestern Ontario, Canada. Vegetation diversity and composition, LAI and soil characteristics (i.e., soil organic matter, pH, temperature and moisture) were measured at each plot along the ecotone. Pitfall trap data collected in Summer 2025 at the same sites were used to characterize macrofauna communities. We used generalized linear mixed effects models to estimate the effect of distance to edge, site, and depth into the soil on bait lamina consumption and soil macrofauna, with transect nested within site as random effects. Consumption activity increased with distance into the forest from the field, with the edge representing an intermediate; and, decreased with increasing depth into the soil. In contrast, soil macrofauna abundance, especially isopods, decrease with distance into the forest from the field. These trends varied significantly across sites, so that consumption activity and abundance sometimes remained constant across the ecotone (i.e., site x distance interaction). The results demonstrate that macrofaunal contributions to bait consumption varied along the ecotone, shaped by interacting environmental gradients and shifts in community composition unique to each site.

O_LIWhen eradication is unfeasible, invasive predator control should evaluate how removal affects ecological responses by native species. Assessments often use total invasive predator abundance to evaluate prey responses, yet intraspecific variation in diet and space use means that some subgroups cause disproportionate impacts. Identifying these problem individuals, and the spatial scales over which their impacts operate, can enable targeted spatially explicit removal to maximise impact reduction. However, despite individual-level information is often already collected during trapping operations it is seldom included when analysing predator impacts, potentially biasing the conservation outcomes expected under blanket removal. C_LIO_LIWe use a novel framework and two decades of invasive predator control data to estimate how individual variation in residency status influences the distance-dependent impacts of invasive American mink Neogale vison on water vole Arvicola amphibius occupancy across two prey surveys. We also develop a sub-model to predict mink residency status for individuals with missing age data. C_LIO_LIThe probability of capturing adult mink decreased with elevation and years of control, indicating that long-term control altered the resident population and demographic composition of mink around water vole sites. C_LIO_LIDistance-dependent negative impacts of mink varied by residency status, becoming negligible at approximately 20 km from water vole sites for resident mink and 2 km for transient. The spatial scale of mink impacts was largest during the first vole survey when resident mink were more abundant, and declined rapidly for the second survey, when mink were less abundant and spatially clustered. Our results suggest that water voles have benefited mostly from reducing resident mink rather than the total population, especially in early control phases. C_LIO_LIManagers can use our framework to develop spatially explicit and impact-based strategies, not restricted to invasive species control, to construct empirically informed management buffers around populations of conservation concern. Long-term efforts will change the landscape and invasive predator contexts, and thus we recommend iteratively updating and re-evaluating management outcome evaluations. We argue that incorporating individual heterogeneity improves our understanding of ecological mechanisms influencing management success but that the suitability of targeted strategies should be evaluated for target socioecological contexts. C_LI

Urban green spaces are increasingly recognised as important refuges for biodiversity, yet their ecological value depends strongly on design and management. Here, we investigate how fine-scale structural and microhabitat components shape urban ant assemblages, using ants as indicators of broader arthropod responses to urbanisation. Ant communities were sampled in twelve urban green spaces in Cordoba (southern Spain) over a ten-year period (2004 to 2013) using pitfall traps, alongside detailed characterisation of vegetation structure and ground-layer microhabitats. In total, 38 species and 25,578 individuals were recorded. Microhabitat variables explained 58% of the variation in species occurrence. Community differences among microhabitats were driven primarily by nestedness, with dense herbaceous cover acting as a core habitat and edge-related components contributing disproportionately to beta diversity. Tree abundance showed a unimodal relationship with species richness, with maximum diversity at intermediate densities, while shrub and lawn cover had weak or inconsistent effects. Fine-scale elements such as leaf litter, stones, woody debris, and small bare-ground patches strongly influenced species occurrence by providing thermal refugia, nesting substrates, and foraging opportunities. The invasive Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) exhibited strong but spatially restricted dominance and species-specific negative effects on native ants, emphasising the role of habitat context in mediating invasion impacts. Our results demonstrate that urban biodiversity is maximised by enhancing fine-scale habitat heterogeneity rather than increasing green cover alone. We highlight practical design principles for urban green infrastructure that prioritise structural diversity and ground-layer complexity to support resilient arthropod communities.

Mass mortality events (MMEs) create sudden pulses of carrion that can alter how vertebrate scavengers use carcass resources, including the frequency, duration, and timing of species-carcass contacts. These changes could have implications for pathogen transmission at the scavenger-carcass interface. We aimed to develop and apply a reproducible analytical framework for using camera-trap data to quantify transmission-relevant vertebrate activity at carcass sites under differing carrion biomass scenarios. We studied experimental carcass plots (single carcass ~43 kg; 'mass mortality' plots [10 carcasses, >350 kg total]; 6 of each) in Australia's alpine ecosystem. The framework integrated descriptive summaries (bipartite network analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves) and marked temporal point-process models to characterise structural and temporal dimensions of species-carcass activity. Mass mortality plots had greater overall visitation duration, occurring as sustained activity (50% of visitation event volume by day 17), compared with intense then rapidly declining activity at single carcasses (50% by day 8). Mass mortality plots also had higher predicted daily arrival probability and contact hours across most species, indicating an extended window for pathogen transmission. This framework provides empirically derived contact parameters for MME-related disease spread models using camera-trap data to identify potential transmission pathways at the scavenger-carcass interface.

Surges in food availability create localized but intense foraging opportunities, often attracting multi-species consumer groups. Agricultural practices can trigger these surges, prompting bird associations. However, the strength and duration of the association, as well as its drivers, remain unclear. This study examines waterbird association with harvesting and ploughing events in rice fields. The duration and magnitude of these associations were determined and three hypotheses addressed to explain them: (1) increased food availability, (2) enhanced foraging success and (3) reduced time allocated to vigilance. Waterbird counts and GPS tracking revealed strong associations with management events. Bird numbers spiked during events but declined within one to two days. Food availability (and soil penetrability) increased significantly during events - crayfish and rice during harvesting, worms and soil penetrability during ploughing - supporting Hypothesis 1. However, this did not improve foraging performance (intake rate, foraging success), rejecting Hypothesis 2. Higher competition, interference or kleptoparasitism in these large mixed-species flocks may offset increased food availability benefits. Alternatively, functional responses of target species may limit prey intake due to physiological or behavioural constraints. Hypothesis 3 was also unsupported, as birds did not reduce vigilance. It is plausible that birds may be drawn to events by the perception of a feast, not actual benefits. Gregariousness and foraging behaviour by local enhancement may explain such associations. Results highlight the complexity of bird responses to food surges while suggesting waterbirds in rice fields maintain stable foraging performance during agricultural management events and otherwise, indicating resilience to agricultural timing shifts.

The reintroduction of extinct or endangered species to restore ecosystem function is an essential aspect of rewilding. The Wilder Blean Project at West Blean and Thornden Woods in Canterbury, UK, is committed to rewilding natural processes and enhancing biodiversity in one of England's oldest and largest areas of ancient woodland. The introduction of European bison (Bison bonasus) is an important part of the project. However, how the reintroduction of large herbivores influences local biodiversity and ecosystem functions during the early stages of rewilding remains poorly understood. Soil samples were collected from the same sampling sites before and two years after bison were reintroduced and profiled by metagenomic sequencing using Oxford Nanopore Technologies sequencing platforms. The results showed that the alpha diversity of soil organisms did not change significantly before and after the introduction of European bison, while beta diversity showed modest shifts in community composition. The relative abundance of some nitrogen-fixing and photosynthetic microbial genera showed declines in the 2024 Bison Area, while the mycorrhizal fungus genus Rhizophagus was significantly less abundant than in the 2024 Control Area. Despite relatively stable taxonomic diversity, functional composition differed significantly between the 2022 and 2024 Bison areas and among the 2024 rewilding treatments, revealing a decoupling between taxonomic diversity and functional composition. Amino acid synthesis pathways and carbon metabolism pathways were significantly enriched. These findings highlight the potential of long-read Oxford Nanopore metagenomics to reveal functional shifts that may not be apparent from taxonomic diversity alone. Although these early-stage responses cannot yet predict long-term rewilding trajectories, continued longitudinal monitoring integrating microbial, soil physicochemical, and ecosystem-level measurements will be essential to determine the persistence and ecological significance of these functional shifts.

Invasive ambrosia beetles and fungal pathogens threaten forest ecosystems worldwide, exemplified in Hawaii by the widespread loss of keystone species [o]hia (Metrosideros polymorpha), due to Rapid [O]hia Death (ROD). A unique occurrence of five ambrosia beetle species (one native, four introduced) that vary in their symbiotic relationships with two introduced fungal pathogens provide an opportunity to test hypotheses of how opportunistic symbioses facilitate disease dynamics involving dominant forest trees. ROD is caused by two novel Ceratocystis fungal pathogens whose spores can spread via association with ambrosia beetles as they bore into [o]hia trees. We examined beetle-pathogen interactions of all five ambrosia beetle species in three ROD-affected regions on Hawaii Island, and used quantitative PCR (qPCR) to provide the first molecular confirmation of the two ROD pathogens associated with the exterior, mycangia, and gut of each beetle species. Results from generalized linear models and correlation networks show that pathogen acquisition and transport, including the potential for consumption and the presence of the pathogens, are determined by beetle invasion status and mycangia morphology. A niche construction framework suggests that both varying symbioses and opportunism facilitate disease spread, with the three invasive Xyleborus species emerging as key disease vectors. Identifying the beetle species that are more likely to contribute to disease spread, and understanding their biology as vectors, can inform targeted conservation strategies for [o]hia and for insect-pathogen threats in forests worldwide, and illustrates the potential ecosystem-level impacts of novel and opportunistic symbioses between globally distributed invasive vectors and pathogens.

Successful ecosystem restoration is intimately linked to the persistence of species in local communities and across landscapes. As such quantitative approaches to ecological restoration require the integration of community and metapopulation ecology. Together these disciplines demonstrate that local colonisation, via habitat connectivity and size, and species interactions, both modulate the process of community assembly. However, thus far restoration ecology still remains disconnected from network ecology this preventing a holistic, community-wide perspective to restoration. We aim to inform ecological restoration using a multi-layer modelling framework integrating ecological interactions and species dispersal dynamics. We explore the drivers that modulate recolonisation dynamics of species across restored landscapes. We further investigate how restoration improves the structural properties of food webs, the number of successful recolonisations and the role of configuration of restored patches in restoration outcomes. We find that recolonisation is the result of a trade-off between dispersal ability and energy requirements. 97% of plant recolonisation and 88% of herbivore recolonisations happened within close proximity to the source patches. Better dispersers - intermediate and top species in the food webs - were able to recolonise habitat by benefitting from the increased biomass influx from restoration. When only a small proportion of the landscape could be restored, the location and connectivity of restored areas strongly influenced the outcome of restoration: more connected patches enabled on average the recolonisation of about 1 additional intermediate species compared to that of isolated patches. However, this difference faded as soon as more patches were restored, and improving larger portions of the landscape always resulted in better outcomes. Restoring 1/3 of the landscape enabled on average the recolonisation of ~4 additional species. Our findings suggest that quantitative models can inform restoration efforts necessary to bring native species back to restored areas. They also suggest that attention should be given to the requirements of the recolonisers, the distance of their introduction from restored areas and their trophic and ecological niche. These aspects are crucial to assess their energy and habitat requirements for successful establishment.

Citizen science observations are abundant, but conservation requires turning uneven records into reliable predictions and directing new surveys to where information is missing. We developed a biodiversity platform for Japan that is updated monthly and integrates 2.32 million records to predict 8,297 species across seven taxonomic groups. Shared representation models outperformed species-specific models in four groups and extended predictions to species with few records. Five independent datasets, including structured monitoring, environmental DNA and complete forest inventories, confirmed that the models ranked observed species and occupied sites above alternatives, with median AUCs of 0.724 to 0.894 across sites and 0.650 to 0.841 across species. For any user-selected area, the platform returns candidate species, distribution predictions, a biodiversity map corrected for uneven observation effort, a conservation priority map for native species and a map recommending where to survey next. This map highlights places where species with few records are predicted to occur despite limited sampling. Independent observations showed that areas ranked highly by this predicted potential contained many such species, indicating that model predictions can help direct surveys toward knowledge gaps. New observations are incorporated into monthly updates, creating a national feedback system connecting citizen science, local conservation decisions and future surveys.